Posted on 17 February, 2011 | 54 Comments
Wall Street Journal
Federal Reserve officials modestly upgraded their outlook for growth last month, but indicated little inclination to lessen their extraordinary support for the economy this year.
Fed policymakers boosted their projections for 2011 growth in U.S. gross domestic product to between 3.4% and 3.9%, up from the 3% to 3.6% they estimated in November, according to the forecasts released Wednesday along with minutes of the meeting of the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee in January. Increased consumer spending, stronger exports and a boost from the tax-cut package approved in December all contributed to the brighter outlook.
The officials, however, voted unanimously at the meeting to leave intact their $600 billion bond-buying program given the slow improvement in unemployment and inflation.
Despite the improved growth forecast, “the pace of the recovery was insufficient to bring about a significant improvement in labor market conditions, and measures of underlying inflation had trended downward,” the minutes said.
Some Fed policymakers have raised the prospect of scaling back the purchases of longer-term Treasury securities, now scheduled to run through June, if growth prospects improve significantly in coming months. But most of the committee appeared to show little interest in such a move.
“A few members noted that additional data pointing to a sufficiently strong recovery could make it appropriate to consider reducing the pace or overall size of the purchase program,” the minutes said. “However, others pointed out that it was unlikely that the outlook would change by enough to substantiate any adjustments to the program before its completion.”
The Fed officials still could change their minds, if events unfold differently than they expect. “Members emphasized that the committee would continue to regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset purchase program in the light of incoming information…and would adjust the program as needed,” the minutes said.
Despite mounting worries about rising prices for oil, grains, metals, and other global commodities, central-bank officials continue to expect very slow increases in the U.S. consumer-price level. They forecast overall inflation of 1.3% to 1.7% in 2011, barely up from the 1.1% to 1.7% they estimated in November, based on the Commerce Department’s price index for personal consumption expenditures. Excluding food and energy prices, inflation is expected to be between 1% and 1.3% this year–well below Fed officials’ informal target of just under 2%.
Some Fed officials said at the meeting that climbing commodity prices, along with higher prices for imported goods, posed risks for higher inflation. But others noted that the pass-through to consumers “had generally been fairly small,” the minutes said. “Some participants expressed concern that in a situation in which businesses had been unable to raise prices in response to higher costs for some time, firms might increase them substantially once they found themselves with sufficient pricing power.”
Fed officials estimated that the unemployment rate in the final quarter of the year would be between 8.8% and 9%, a slight improvement from the 8.9% to 9.1% projected at their prior meeting.
Policy makers indicated stronger confidence about the durability of the recovery, and less concern about the possibility of a persistent decline in the consumer price level, or deflation. Officials “generally agreed that the downside risks to their forecasts of both economic growth and inflation―as well as the odds of a period of deflation―had diminished,” according to the minutes.
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